Another week gone and another chance for everyone to see Techdirt through someone else's eyes. While I may not be as prosaic and prolific of a commenter as some of the regulars, I hope you find some common threads in what I found poignant this week on Techdirt.
We start with the new research report from Floor64, The Sky Is Rising. While regular readers here were not surprised at the results, my first thought was how to get big content business to read and, more importantly, understand the salient points put forth. As usual, the comments ran back and forth over the standard arguments, but for me, the one from Janis stood out as an indicator of things to come where creators are no longer required to be massively successful in order to earn something from their efforts. As for the rest of the day, we had some of the all too typical indicators that the major content studios are going to continue acting like spoiled toddlers. Color me surprised... NOT!.
Tuesday morning had an article from Glyn Moody that hit close to home. Until my division was spun off and sold late last year, I was a programmer for LexisNexis (LN is a subsidiary of Reed-Elsevier). Despite my desire for the company to prosper so I could continue to receive a paycheck, the Elsevier publishing division was always one I delighted seeing in decline. I firmly believe that, as a whole, mankind is better served through open and shared research. I, for one, hope this latest boycott and alternative publishing effort succeed. Of course, following that, we had more examples of clueless content owners and their overblown sense of entitlement.
Wednesday brought some stark reminders of just how broken our current system of government really is - especially that last one. Think about it - a Senator who is doing what he can to FIX some of the very serious problems in this country is being attacked for doing his job? We really need to get out of this "R vs. D" mentality and focus on the individual issues. If only we could get people to realize that you can agree with someone on one thing and disagree with them on everything else. Madness, I tell you!
Unfortunately, work intruded most severely on Thursday, but there were two standouts. First, I took great joy in seeing that Redbox is once again standing up to Warner Bros. and their ridiculous attempts to treat consumers like cattle. I often wonder if Hollywood will ever realize that people want to be entertained, but in a manner that fits their budget and time frame. All these machinations to alter how people spend their entertainment dollars isn't going to change that one bit. Of course, much like Chosen Reject, I find this fight fascinating and hope to see some updates down the road. On the flip side, it was distressing to see yet another politician ignoring his oath of office to defend the Constitution. Regardless of opinion or even how much of a potential jerk he could be, Josh Fox had a right to record the proceedings. This is another one that I will be trying to find some follow-up on.
Ahhh, Friday. End of the week for many and a day we spend looking forward to the weekend. First up is actually a comment from Suja where a minor replacement made for, in my opinion, a much more accurate set of statements. Next, we had Capitalist Lion Tamer warning reminding us just how close to a police state the US has become and that it's not likely to get better until it's too late. The portions noting the "War on Drugs" and the corresponding comments below reminded me of the first part of an anti-SOPA post on another blog I read: The so-called war on drugs is a joke. A sick, sad, stupid joke. It didn't get rid of drugs, it didn't reduce drug use, or drug smuggling, or drug violence, or drug related deaths. It didn't, in fact, do a damned thing. All it does is keep a lot of law enforcement types employed chasing their tails. While his language can be a bit rough around the edges, he has a rather succint way of putting things and is usually writing from personal experience. Finally, of course, what kind of a consumer would I be if I didn't at least mention the Super Bowl. It's nice to see someone speaking up about the ridiculous overreach of the NFL. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go practice my 12oz curls and 5 yard dash (to the bathroom) for Sunday's game when I watch it on a friend's 60" flat screen.
With the immediate threat from SOPA/PIPA on hold, people have started to turn their attention to the long-running saga of ACTA. While it was being negotiated behind closed doors, few people knew about it, and protests against it were muted. Now that it has finally emerged into the open and begins its last dash towards the finishing line of ratification, the pace of anti-ACTA activism is beginning to pick up quickly. That's especially true in Europe, where everything hinges on the result of the European Parliament's vote on the treaty later this year. If it rejects it, ACTA is dead.
First we had the dramatic resignation of the European Parliament's "rapporteur" on ACTA, then the public apology of the Slovenian Ambassador to Japan for signing ACTA last week in Japan. Individual members of the European Parliament are also coming out against ACTA, notably the Dutch MEP Marietje Schaake, who has prepared an excellent briefing document on the subject, together with several Bulgarian MEPs. But without doubt, the main focus of anti-ACTA actions so far has been in Poland.
As Techdirt has reported, the first demonstration against ACTA took place in Warsaw, and some Polish politicians donned Guy Fawkes/Anonymous masks in parliament to express their displeasure at the Polish government's signing of the treaty. Even the Polish prime minister is trying to back-pedal. Meanwhile, the Polish "No to ACTA" Facebook page has gathered nearly half a million supporters.
Clearly, something very interesting is happening at all levels of Polish society as a result of ACTA, and someone else has noticed this too. According to a translation of a report on the Polish web site gazeta.pl: "--It was around 11.00 in the morning when an employee from the US Embassy called. She was curious about the voting [on ACTA]. He has counted the votes and she thought some of the deputies were missing. Eight deputies were for, three against, four have held up. Something's wrong here, because some votes seem to be missing." -- said Mieczysław Golba from Solidarna Polska. As another Polish politician explained: "-- If the US embassy was just interested in the voting itself, it's okay with us. But questioning about party discipline is scandalous"-- says Sławomir Neumann from PO. -- "Americans should calm down a little, as such behaviour is an interference into the internal affairs of the Polish parliament. We can treat Americans as friends, but there are some borders that one shouldn't cross.We are partners, but not a parliament dependent on the Congress or the president's Obama administration." Assuming this really was someone from the US embassy checking up on the whether Polish politicians were following the party line on ACTA -- there's been no independent corroboration yet -- it does seem pretty extraordinary. Judging by the generally outraged tone of the 1100+ comments on this piece, the Poles themselves don't seem very happy either. I think we can expect to hear much more about Poland's resistance to ACTA in the coming weeks.
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A key element of the political rhetoric around SOPA/PIPA was the idea that it was about jobs, and that jobs are so critical in the current economic climate that safeguarding them overrides any other concern the Net world might have about the means being proposed to do that. But then the key question becomes: who are really more important in terms of those jobs - the copyright industries, or companies exploiting the potential of the Internet that would be harmed if the Net were hobbled by new legislation?
A timely new McKinsey report entitled "Internet matters: The Net's sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity" provides us with some independent evidence on the topic. Here are the relevant findings: The Internet is a critical element of growth. Both our macroeconomic approach and our statistical approach show that, in the mature countries we studied, the Internet accounted for 10 percent of GDP growth over the past 15 years. And its influence is expanding. Over the past five years, the Internet’s contribution to GDP growth in these countries doubled to 21 percent. The latest information (pdf) from the International Intellectual Property Alliance (IIPA) claims the GDP contribution from the "core copyright industries" in the US in the years 2007-2010 went from 6.43% to 6.36% - that is, its contribution to the overall GDP was largely unchanged over this period. So the contribution of the "core copyright industries" to GDP growth over this period was also around 6%. The "core copyright industries" are defined as follows: The core industries are those industries whose primary purpose is to create, produce, distribute or exhibit copyright materials. These industries include newspapers and periodicals, motion pictures, recorded music, radio and television broadcasting, and computer software. That is, they include software companies, some of which are doubtless active on the Internet. So the contribution of the non-Internet core copyright industries to the GDP growth from 2007-2010 was less than the 6% figure above. That compares with an overall contribution of the Internet to GDP growth in the mature countries as a whole of 21% (but over five years, not four).
So what about the jobs? Here's McKinsey again: The Internet is a powerful catalyst for job creation. Some jobs have been destroyed by the emergence of the Internet. However, a detailed analysis of the French economy showed that while the Internet has destroyed 500,000 jobs over the past 15 years, it has created 1.2 million others, a net addition of 700,000 jobs or 2.4 jobs created for every job destroyed. This conclusion is supported by McKinsey’s global SME survey, which found 2.6 jobs were created for every one destroyed. Again, the IIPA report offers some figures: the core copyright industries employed 5,496,100 workers in 2007. These workers represented 3.99% of the total U.S. workforce in 2007. By 2010, the number of core copyright employees in the United States had declined by 398,500 workers to 5,097,600. In an earlier report (pdf), the number of people employed by the core copyright industries in 2002 is given as 5.48 million – roughly the same as in 2007. That is, whether or not the numbers are really representative, there was a net decline in the workforce of the "core copyright industries", which include software and probably some Internet companies, from 2002 to 2010.
By contrast, in France, whose population is roughly a fifth of that of the US, the Internet created some 700,000 jobs net. That was from 1995, but in the early years it is likely that relatively few jobs were created by the then-new Internet, so most of those 700,000 would have been created later on - say 400,000 for the last eight years. In the US, we might expect at least a pro rata number – 2.4 million jobs. That's probably an underestimate, since the US is in the Net vanguard, but even if it's an overestimate, the figure is likely to be much better than the net loss of the core copyright industries.
If the backers of SOPA and PIPA were really as concerned about jobs as they profess to be, they would be doing everything in their power to defend the Internet so as to preserve this incredible engine of growth, not attack it. And they would be pushing the copyright industries to embrace the Internet as rapidly and completely as possible, since the McKinsey report also points out: Although the Internet has resulted in significant value shifts between sectors in the global economy, our research demonstrates that all industries have benefited from the Web. Indeed, in McKinsey’s global SME survey, we found that 75 percent of the economic impact of the Internet arises from traditional companies that don’t define themselves as pure Internet players. The businesses that have seen the greatest value creation have benefits from innovation leading to higher productivity triggered by the Internet. Sounds like a perfect solution: instead of fighting the digital revolution tooth and nail, the copyright industries could embrace it like everyone else, stop demanding to be treated like a special case, and start innovating.
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